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Arbe
Posted on 06-03-08 09:57 PM Link | Quote | ID: 84600

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Article here.

I must say, I don't understand a lot if it, but I definitely can't wait to be able to ask my PC for green eggs and ham.

Ailure
Posted on 06-03-08 10:04 PM Link | Quote | ID: 84601

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Grey goo.

...which I doubt will happen anyway.

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blackhole89
Posted on 06-03-08 10:07 PM Link | Quote | ID: 84602


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2015-2020 – during this time, nanobots will be available that can render hazardous materials harmless, enrich farmlands by placing correct amounts of oxygen and nutrients into the soil, and roam through bodies analyzing vital conditions and displaying health information directly on the skin (like a temporary tattoo). Also in this period, computers will be able to sense and respond to human thoughts; and tissues and organs will be grown inside the body using stem cell and genetic engineering techniques.


That prognosis sounds about as unrealistic to me as the 20th-century spaceflight fiction (cf. 2001: A Space Odyssey). After the end of the Cold War, technological progress steadily slowed down due to a lack of serious competition and overly rigid state-backed monopolies. Life in 2020 probably will hardly be different from today's, if at all.


Grey goo.

You totally beat me to that.

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Ailure
Posted on 06-03-08 10:25 PM Link | Quote | ID: 84608

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Looking in the past 100 years, living quality have improved.

Of course, most of the time though people have a really hard time predicting in which ways.

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Arbe
Posted on 06-03-08 10:37 PM Link | Quote | ID: 84613

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2020 and Beyond – tiny computerized nanobots that maintain perfect health in every cell could be available by 2025, and in the 2030s, according to Kurzweil, humanity will begin to transcend its biological limitations and interface directly with machines to absorb huge amounts of intelligence created by powerful supercomputers.


Uh oh. Can you say "over-population" much? I don't want to live in a world that transcends death.

RT-55J
Posted on 06-04-08 01:35 AM Link | Quote | ID: 84620

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Just think of the potential terrorist applications of these technologies!

Samus
Posted on 06-04-08 03:47 AM Link | Quote | ID: 84632

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As if Humans weren't lazy enough as it is, lets just make this mini super computer do everything for us, so we can grow fat and spoiled!

This'll take longer than 30 years, I'm sure. Eventually, maybe. Soon, probably not.

Trax
Posted on 06-04-08 09:43 AM Link | Quote | ID: 84645


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Posted by "BlackHole"
That prognosis sounds about as unrealistic to me as the 20th-century spaceflight fiction (cf. 2001: A Space Odyssey). After the end of the Cold War, technological progress steadily slowed down due to a lack of serious competition and overly rigid state-backed monopolies. Life in 2020 probably will hardly be different from today's, if at all.

Lack of competition? Oh boy, can be quite the opposite in many domains, if not everything. Just imagine how computers or washers or shoes would be today if all the competition in the last 100 years had been replaced with cooperation. It's almost inimaginable...

Of course, there's also the deficiencies of our monetary systems that are in the way of technological and social advance...

Stark
Posted on 06-04-08 04:15 PM Link | Quote | ID: 84654

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Posted by Ailure
Grey goo.
"We cannot afford certain types of accidents", Eric Drexler, Engines of creation, 1986
"I wish I had never used the term 'grey goo'", Eric Drexler, Nature 10 June 2004

Not really all that possible.

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blackhole89
Posted on 06-04-08 04:21 PM Link | Quote | ID: 84657


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Posted by Stark
Posted by Ailure
Grey goo.
"We cannot afford certain types of accidents", Eric Drexler, Engines of creation, 1986
"I wish I had never used the term 'grey goo'", Eric Drexler, Nature 10 June 2004

Not really all that possible.

Why not? Given (a) relatively frequent chemical compound(s) as a basis and no too picky requirements to the medium of operation, it's a fairly realistic outcome should a machine that can replicate itself be built (which is, especially at that small scale, not such an unrealistic outlook).

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Stark
Posted on 06-04-08 04:31 PM (rev. 2 of 06-04-08 04:34 PM) Link | Quote | ID: 84658

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Posted by Royal Academy of Engineering
Media coverage of nanotechnologies has invariably raised the spectre of the ‘grey goo’: a doomsday scenario in which nanoscale robots self-replicate out of control, producing unlimited copies of themselves, consuming all available material and ultimately laying waste to the planet. Whereas most of the scientific community considers this to be science fiction, others have argued that it is a possible outcome of unregulated nanotechnology. The level of public and media interest in nanotechnology therefore justifies the following question: Is ‘grey goo’ a real concern, or is it a distraction from the important issues?

The original concept of molecular manufacturing described by Dr Eric Drexler, Chairman of the Foresight Institute, imagined the synthesis of materials and objects by a mechanical ‘assembler’; that is, a machine with the ability make any object by selecting atoms from the environment and positioning them, one at a time, to assemble the object. This assembler can be programmed and is independently powered. As it can make any object, it can reproduce itself. If the process malfunctions or is corrupted, intentionally or not, the self-replication process could continue indefinitely. Over the past 20 years or so, Drexler and his colleagues have continued theoretical studies of the feasibility of such machines, but as far as we are aware there is no research in this field that has been supported by funding agencies, and there has been no practical experimental progress over this period. The reason is simple: there are many serious fundamental scientific difficulties and objections, to the extent that most of the scientific community believes the mechanical self-replicating nano-robot proposal to be impossible.

The scientific issues have been debated in open correspondence between Dr Drexler and Professor Rick Smalley, co-recipient of the Nobel Prize for Chemistry in 1996 for the discovery of carbon 60—so called buckyballs. In summary, there are two major difficulties: first, to lift and position atoms one needs very fine manipulators, of a similar size to the atoms being worked with; second, the atoms being manipulated must first attach – i.e. chemically bind – to the manipulator, and then unbind from the manipulator and bind to the object. Although scientists have used atomic force microscopes to manipulate a restricted group of individual atoms and molecules into simple structures on surfaces, the properties of matter on this lengthscale appear to be incompatible with the requirements for a mechanical self-replicating technology. These objections have been termed by Smalley as ‘thick fingers’ and ‘sticky fingers’. Professor George Whitesides has questioned the feasibility of the energy management system that would be needed to handle the large energy input and release that occurs at the different stages of the construction process. Because the assembler is a nanomachine, its positioning accuracy is severely limited by the intense bombardment it receives from atoms in the environment – whether gaseous or liquid – which causes Brownian motion. It is quite clear: making a mechanical self-assembler is well beyond the current state of knowledge.

Our experience with chemistry and physics teaches us that we do not have any idea how to make an autonomous self-replicating mechanical machine at any scale, let alone nanoscale. Where we can find self-replicating machines is in the world of biology. The cell, thousands of nm in size, is the smallest unit we know that contains all the machinery essential for the process of reproduction, given a suitable environment. In fact, the planet we know today is quite different from its earliest form: biology evolved and turned a desert into the ecosystem of which we are now a part. At present however, the complete details of operation of even a simple cell are far beyond our understanding.

Given the above, we have heard no evidence to suggest that mechanical self-replicating nanomachines will be developed in the foreseeable future, and so would direct regulators at more pressing concerns outlined in chapter 8.


Re: the topic at hand, nanotechnology is pretty cool and awesome, and it's nice how much it's come into our daily life. But what is mentioned in the article linked from 2010 on is pretty well not possible. Nice as it is, it just can't self-replicate.

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NightKev
Posted on 06-05-08 02:54 AM Link | Quote | ID: 84679


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Posted by Trax
Lack of competition? Oh boy, can be quite the opposite in many domains, if not everything. Just imagine how computers or washers or shoes would be today if all the competition in the last 100 years had been replaced with cooperation. It's almost inimaginable...
"Oh hey look, I'm the only one who makes computers. I'll use the cheapest materials possible and charge a fortune, and no one can do a damned thing about it because I'm the only one!"

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Ailure
Posted on 06-07-08 11:38 PM Link | Quote | ID: 84782

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*shrug*

Competition is good when there's financial interest (aka capitalism), with the product being put on a market.

Cooperation is good when there's a common interest that isn't financial.

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Xeruss
Posted on 06-08-08 04:26 AM Link | Quote | ID: 84792


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Hah, I like the possibilities, "Computer, pirate me a sofa!"

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blackhole89
Posted on 06-08-08 11:48 PM Link | Quote | ID: 84811


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Competition's good points come from it being one of the few, if not the only, means of containing power and influence.
Trax' cooperation argument kind of depends on an (in my opinion, unrealistic) assumption that it's innovation and advances the separate actors in the industry strive for rather than power and profit. (Those who don't never quite achieve the power and profit required to fund cutting-edge innovation)

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Flan
Posted on 06-09-08 12:30 AM Link | Quote | ID: 84813


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Cooperation is a local concept, and competition is a global one.

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