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Acmlm's Board - I3 Archive - World Affairs/Debate - Bird Flu | New poll | | Thread closed |
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Boom.dk Since: 11-18-05 From: Denmark Last post: 6450 days Last view: 6431 days |
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I just heard that its now in sweden also...
I actually find this shit scary. What are your thoughts on this subject? |
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Trapster King Dedede Since: 11-19-05 From: Sweden Last post: 6540 days Last view: 6432 days |
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I donīt think you should worry too much about it. I read an article where a bird infection expert said that the risk that the bird flu will infect you is very small.
It has infected a cat in Germany, though. I think that pets are more susceptible to the bird flu than humans. (edited by Piranha on 02-28-06 03:14 PM) |
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Boom.dk Since: 11-18-05 From: Denmark Last post: 6450 days Last view: 6431 days |
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Wikipedia Article
"Experts believe it might mutate into a form that transmits easily from person to person." I dunno. It seems likely though. (edited by Boom.dk on 02-28-06 03:21 PM) |
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neotransotaku Sledge Brother Liberated from school...until MLK day Since: 11-17-05 From: In Hearst Field Annex... Last post: 6434 days Last view: 6431 days |
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This is what we need to curb the human population is my view...
However, I have a feeling super bacterial will be coming out of this if the flu becomes pandemic stage because people will be stocking up on antibiotics which are totally useless against viruses... |
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Coby Keese Since: 11-20-05 From: Belgium Last post: 6437 days Last view: 6433 days |
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Actually the bird flu can only be gotten by getting in touch with infected birds, so just stay away from the birds. And the flu isn't harmful for humans, but SHOULD the bird flu combine with our flu then we would have a problem. | |||
Sin Dogan 860 Uoodo Original Blend Armored Trooper Votoms Canned Coffee! Since: 11-17-05 Last post: 6436 days Last view: 6435 days |
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It's gonna mutate and then we'll all die. | |||
Snow Tomato Snap Dragon Since: 12-31-05 From: NYC Last post: 6452 days Last view: 6438 days |
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Combine with our flu? That wouldn't happen. The virus could mutate and spead itself from human to human.
I think the word "pandemic" is ridiculous. I don't spend my days worrying about when I'm going to die though. If it just so happens that bird flu gets me then.... bird flu gets me. I think with modern medicine and the quality of hospitals though.. it won't be that large of a problem. The mortality rate is like... 50/50. I think like old people and babies really really have to watch out if it starts spreading from human to human. Cause they'll be the most hard hit by it. But remember when people thought SARS was going to kill everyone in the world? Remember when El Nino was going to cause the destruction of the world? Don't get too hyped up. Just take things as they come.. and if it becomes a serious serious serious threat.. then I'll worry. Because vaccines are useless, and there aren't any anti-biotics for a virus. Obviously. |
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Sin Dogan 860 Uoodo Original Blend Armored Trooper Votoms Canned Coffee! Since: 11-17-05 Last post: 6436 days Last view: 6435 days |
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Well I think you can compare Bird Flu more to the influenza pandemic of the 20s that killed millions(around 40) worldwide. I personally do not think there is enough support money wise and other forms backing disease control. Those are the real important wars that we should be fighting.
The idea of it being population control is proposterous. Everything is so imbalanced; what with some African countries having a life expectancy of around 30. People don't care about diseases and shit that don't affect them. Cancer is really a luxury compared to infectious diseases. (edited by Jin Dogtooth Cichlid on 03-01-06 12:39 AM) |
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emcee Red Super Koopa Since: 11-20-05 Last post: 6432 days Last view: 6431 days |
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From how I understand it, the bird flu virus lives in the bird's intestinal tract and comes out in their waste, it spreads quickly in birds because birds, being filthy animals, don't mind eating from the same place they relieve themselves, but humans, being slightly less filthy animals, normally do.
A person can catch the flu from a bird after handling a bird that might wandered through its waste and got it on its feet and feathers. If that person doesn't wash their hands well enough before handling their food, the virus will begin reproducing in their intestinal tract, but short some very discusting situations I don't care to think about, its not very likely for it to pass from that person to anyone else. So, before it can transmit between humans it has to mutate to infect the throat or respitory system instead of the intenstinal tract, so that it can be passed by coughs and sneezes. But since the size and location of the genetic code in the virus that controls this isn't known, there's no way of knowing what the likeliness of this happening is. The only reason its considered a possibility is because it happened before. Of course if a virus does mutate into a form that can live in the respitory system, it still has to be passed to a human, if the strain develops in an isolated group of birds it would likely die out before infecting someone. If it does become able to pass between people, it could very well become a global pandemic, killing tens of millions of people. But it would probably be mostly in third world nations, and the effects would go largely unnoticed in developed nations, where it would remain mostly "other people's problem". Much like the current global pandemic that's killed tens of millions of people: AIDS. |
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Arwon Bazu Since: 11-18-05 From: Randwick, Sydney, NSW, Australia Last post: 6433 days Last view: 6433 days |
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No, we'd still see major death in the first world. The fatality rate among humans so far is about 35%. Even if it dropped in the transition to being human-human transferrable, it'd still be staggeringly lethal.
The Spanish Flu was only a 5% fatality rate and that killed millions. .And they didn't have jet travel then. |
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Deleted User Banned Since: 05-08-06 Last post: None Last view: 6432 days |
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I'll be shit outta luck when the Bird flu reaches the Matrix....... | |||
beneficii Broom Hatter Since: 11-18-05 Last post: 6435 days Last view: 6431 days |
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Originally posted by Coby It is harmful for humans: About 174 people are on record as catching it, with more than 50% of those people dying. And yes, the first world would be affected as well as the third world. If it develops into efficient H2H (human to human) transmission then it will probably spread like wildfire around the world, which with modern transportation would be very fast. It is likely the first world's medical systems would be overwhelmed in any pandemic and this will lead ot many indirect deaths (as many people can no longer get medical care). My recommendation (which I got from my doctor): Get a first aid kid, stock up at least a few months' worth of supplies--food, water, medicines, etc.--, and generally be prepared to isolate yourself. Continue living your lives, but be prepared. It may happen, or it may not. But if it does, then you should isolate yourself, and that means not going out to the grocery store, not going out to public places where you can catch the virus. Just stay home. Remember the ant and the grasshopper, who pwned in the end. |
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emcee Red Super Koopa Since: 11-20-05 Last post: 6432 days Last view: 6431 days |
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I don't think it would spred as fast a some people are saying. The virus would travel from coughs and sneezes, meaning symptoms would have to be present before its contagious. So once an outbreak is identified, travel would be restricted to that area. If an outbreak occurs in a developed country, victims could be quarantined in a sanitary hospital. those who do become infected in developed countries would be less likely to die because they likely started out fairly healthy. Unlike developing nations, where much of the population is already weakened by famine and other diseases (most specifically AIDS). On top of that, outside of maybe a few big cities, there is almost no clean hospitals to quarantine patients. I'm not saying the First World would be unaffected by the Bird Flu, if it were to mutate, just compared to its effect on the Third World, it would be minor. The flu already kills like 40 thousand people a year in the US, so maybe during a pandemic year it might be more like a quarter million. Alot, but "minor" when compared to the likely tens of millions in the Third World. | |||
beneficii Broom Hatter Since: 11-18-05 Last post: 6435 days Last view: 6431 days |
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Originally posted by emcee Uh no. Please read up, influenza becomes contagious (or infectious) during the incubation period (the period when symptoms haven't started yet), usually about a day or so before the incubation period ends: http://www.fluwikie.com/index.php?n=Science.DiseaseTransmissionPrimer
(edited by beneficii on 03-09-06 01:38 AM) |
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emcee Red Super Koopa Since: 11-20-05 Last post: 6432 days Last view: 6431 days |
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Originally posted by beneficiiOriginally posted by emcee Yes, but that doesn't really change the fact that the virus itself lives in the respiratory tract, and is transmitted in saliva. So although the disease may technically be contagious before symptoms exist, the likeliness of it being transmitted wouldn't be that great until you actually start sneezing and coughing. |
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beneficii Broom Hatter Since: 11-18-05 Last post: 6435 days Last view: 6431 days |
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emcee,
Right. The person can't spread it as well without the coughing and sneezing symptoms, but they are still spreading it after they become infectious in a process known as viral shedding. However, the reason why flu will spread much faster than SARS did and be more out of control is because it takes much less time for the person who catches it to themselves become infectious and pass it on to others. SARS is much easier to spread than the flu. However, it took sometimes as many as 10 days with SARS before the person started showing symptoms, and it wasn't until after they started showing symptoms that they became infectious. On average, it was about 5 days before the person started showing symptoms and became infectious, so we have a generational time of about 10 days, from when the first person gets it to when the second person becomes infectious. Therefore, SARS proved easy to contain. OTOH, with the flu, the incubation period is at most 4 days, but the person usually starts to become infectous up to a day before the symptoms appear. The average incubation period, however, lasts only 2 days, so we have a day or so from when the person gets it to their becoming infectious. So, we have a generational time of only 2 days. This makes a difference. I don't remember the exact number, but let's say that if someone gets SARS, they will on average give it to 5 people and let's say that if soemone gets the bird flu (which has the same incubation/infectious period times), they will on average give it to 2 people. So looking at the generational times, over a month: There would be 3 generations of SARS, so 5 * 5 * 5 = 125. 125 people would catch it. There would be 15 generations of bird flu, so 2^15 = 32,768. 32,768 people would catch the bird flu in that same time period. Can you see the difference? Once bird flu goes to efficient H2H transmission, it will blow things like SARS away. EDIT: BTW, here's a good resource on it: http://www.upmc-biosecurity.org/avianflu/publichealthmeasures.html
(edited by beneficii on 03-09-06 04:57 AM) |
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Ziff B2BB BACKTOBASICSBITCHES Since: 11-18-05 From: A room Last post: 6431 days Last view: 6431 days |
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Meh, to be honest I'm not THAT worried. I usually weather illness fairly well and have survived lots of little nasty infections. Absolutely isolating yourself just seems somewhat over the top to me. | |||
Sin Dogan 860 Uoodo Original Blend Armored Trooper Votoms Canned Coffee! Since: 11-17-05 Last post: 6436 days Last view: 6435 days |
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Yea well if it makes a big impact, we're pretty much dead. But the point is, nobody really cares that much about disease control anyway, relatively speaking for that matter. It's disgusting.
At least the fight against MS is having some kind of progress... |
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beneficii Broom Hatter Since: 11-18-05 Last post: 6435 days Last view: 6431 days |
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Originally posted by Plus Sign Abomination Hope for the best, prepare for the worst. It may not turn out to be that bad, but if it does, then you will want to be prepared. Bird flu is far worse than your typical illness, with the accompanying cyanosis and coughing up of blood, leading you to drown in your own fluids. Its mortality rate is currently higher than 50%. If that's not something to keep an eye on and prepare for possibly having efficient H2H transmission, then I don't know what is. EDIT: It also comes with a very high fever. (edited by beneficii on 03-09-06 01:58 PM) (edited by beneficii on 03-09-06 02:03 PM) |
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The Red Snifit Ropa Since: 03-05-06 From: Here Last post: 6433 days Last view: 6431 days |
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All I have to say is that if it comes to America, I'll Move to New Zealand. (Not joking) But i'm not that worried. |
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