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| 0 users currently in World Affairs/Debate. |
| User | Post |
| Arwon Posts: 232/631 |
Rom, you make the mistake of assuming every scary Muslim is the same, and in league with each other. Iran had about as much to do with September 11 as Turkey or Indonesia did.
And, more broadly, al Qaeda isn't Iran, and I suspect its activities would be brutally opposed if it tried to operate in Iran. Iran's stogidly repressive Shiite regime, with its ultraconservative Ayatollahs and mouthy populist president (whose talk is crazy but largely for domestic consomption and playing internal power games with the ayatollahs) has about as much to do with Al Qaeda as the Greek Orthodox Chruch has to do with Jerry Fallwell. Iran is a storm in a teacup for two reasons. 1) we can't stop them, and 2) they're not really a huge threat of using their weapons. We can't stop them through a bombing campaign because their sites are too diffuse and protected and close to population centres, this is not Iraq in the 1980s. This is a country 5 times its size, militarily stronger relative to Israel, and which has learned those lessons well in terms of making their nuclear sites hard to destroy. We can't stop them through the UN unless they want to stop, and a full-on regime-change war won't happen--Iran is militarily strong and its regime is secure. The US would be in a real danger of not being able to win such a war. Even ignoring how incredibly over-stretched its military is, the US would have a hell of a time doing anything, even just airstrikes, and no-one else would support them. Oh, and there's the fact that the entire south of Iraq would erupt in revolt... I once heard a quote that went along the lines of "Iran could take Basra with a truck full of clerics and a loudspeaker" and that's about the size of it. War on Iran = incredibly stupid to the point that it just can't happen. But as I say, whatever, nuclear weapons suck but the world situation won't substantially change when Iran gets the bomb. Iran has no geopolitical reason to start a nuclear war, they'd be erased very quickly. It wouldn't even be anything close to an ICBM, and they'd only get to use a bomb once and then... BAM. Iran knows that there are several countries that can hurl times the kilotonnage at them, from around the world, in a few minutes. Mutually Assured Destruction still applies here, it kept the peace in the Cold War, even though both sides had thousands of weapons and people thought the Commies were fucking nuts. It'll keep the peace with an isolated country with only the barest of nuclear arsenals. The "oh they might help terrorists" thing is also a weak argument, ignorant and vaguely racist allusions to the WTC nonwithstanding. Firstly, not all terrorism is equal, and in the ME a distinction must be drawn between anti-Israel stuff like Hezbollah, which is worlds away from the multinational revolutionary death cults such as Al Qaeda. Supporting the former is common policy, yes, but supporting the latter isn't. Moreover, in a world where more than one country is threatening to use nukes on a country which sponsors an act of terrorism on its soil (go check out Chirac's policy regarding state-sponsored terrorism and nuclear responses), this'd be too risky. Iran's run by conservative assholes, but it's not run by crazy people. Iran wants nuclear weapons for exactly the same reason Israel does. It's a security thang, the open secret of nuclear weapons strengthens one's bargaining position and makes one secure in what is an extremely unstable region. Looking at Iran's geopolitical position, they've got Central Asia including Afghanistan on one side, the Caucasus region up there as well, the shambles that is Iraq on another side, and a Pakistan rife with Sunni extremists on a third. I'd be pretty big on security too. Iran is after its own security and prestige within the world, and with their stogidly conservative government they're no more a nuclear danger than Israel or China. And we can't stop them anyway. Frankly I'd be much more worried about India and Pakistan. That's nuclear danger number one. They've got a readymade TRIGGER for a war with a scarily short fuse, and they both already have nuclear weapons. |
| Ziff Posts: 1107/1800 |
Natanz isn't exactly in a "desert". And as such, almost all of the research is in Western Iran, which is highly populous and well protected. Also, the nation isn't exactly gigantic. The army that they have is well equipped and well trained. The secret police control many aspects of life there. It is unlikely that their relatively small supplies of radiological material will fall under attack. In addition the yellow cake that Iran is producing isn't even highly enriched. It isn't all that dangerous. Russia is far larger, far more demoralized, far more in need of money, and far less able to protect its nuclear stocks. It produces far more dangerous forms of it too. In addition to Russia is the newly nuclear capable Brazil. Plus, over top of that is the fact that many medical facilities in the world aren't supremely well protected and have radiology departments. With radiology comes some fairly nasty isotopes that can be used to make dirty bombs. Iran has a repugnant government - it controls the public life very harshly and it suppresses freedoms. Too bad it became a pet project for the West until it got too out of hand. Just like its western neighbour, Iraq.
Besides you know nothing about Iran. The AyatollahS may not exactly be the friendliest of faces, however it is the current hard-line president that forms the spine of the problem. And before you start your conspiracy theories Iran had nothing to do with Al Qaeda nor 9-11. In fact, Al Qaeda is not looked upon highly by the clerical controllers of the nation. It is a homogenous Shi'a nation (politically speaking). Al Qaeda is willing to embrass various beliefs within Islam. Moreover, from the perspective of an academic, let's not bomb Persia. It has countless artifacts and stands as a grand area of study for early Indo-Iranian artifactures. In addition to that we've already destroy mesopotamia. Ah, how the Euphrates and Tigris cry as we bomb civilization's cradle. |
| Rom Manic Posts: 153/557 |
Originally posted by Skreename I'd like to point out that they already have provoked a conflict. IF you remember, there USED to be 2 world trade center towers in New York... And forgive the conspiracy theory, I'm just explaining my take on events. YES, there are many other countries with Nuclear Technology, but by using Iran's waste (Which happens to be in a desert where you can hide and take almost anything) we've got nobody left to blame but good ol' Islam. You think the Ayatollah will condemn the actions of Al-Quaeda for this? Sanction his very moral fibre for the good of (God forbid) his image? For the Infidels? Give me one good example of where he has already. If you're all just looking from an angle where this nuclear power will be good for Iran, I agree with that. But you have to look at all the angles and rule out any possibility of something bad happening or disaster will strike. IS the juice worth the squeeze? EDIT: Fixed "world trade centers" to "world trade center towers" |
| Skreename Posts: 335/1427 |
Originally posted by Rom Manic Hmm... Brilliant! Not only are you assuming that people would WANT to provoke a conflict with someone who would win, you also consider having a ship (which a country owns) being hijacked to be a victory... for that country? Umm... |
| Wurl Posts: 783/842 |
Figures freedom hating Canada would have Nuclear weapons. |
| Ziff Posts: 1103/1800 |
Better start bombing.
Japan, Brazil, Russia, China, Canada, Britain, France, Pakistan, India, United States, Israel...well, they all have nuclear power generation capabilities. Better start bombing them if you don't want those nasty terrorists getting at that precious, precious nukul0r wastez. |
| Rom Manic Posts: 150/557 |
The scenario I forsee:
*Terrorists hijack a shipment of Nuclear Waste* United Nations: Oh shit! WTF Iran?! United States: Yeah u NOOBS LEARN TO CONTROL NUKLEAR WASTE OR WE SEND TROOPZ! Ayatollah Khamenei: Oh yeah, our bad. For a second, I forgot we were on the same side. Oh wait, thats right. We aren't. |
| Wurl Posts: 775/842 |
I'm a little concerned about Cheney's speach from the other day. To me it sounded a lot like the Iron Curtain speech. War with Iran, Russia and China is a worst case scenario, but I think it is realistic. |
| Randy53215 Posts: 191/726 |
Originally posted by Skreename Exactly what he said, also not to mention the fact that China is an ally. And since you didnt look up what a draft is.... 1. The process or method of selecting one or more individuals from a group, as for a service or duty: a candidate who did not pursue the nomination, but accepted a draft by the party convention. 2. Compulsory enrollment in the armed forces; conscription. 3. A body of people selected or conscripted. Meaning, they would like you to go, its not forced. Im my mind your a coward if you didnt/dont go if they do ask you. |
| Skreename Posts: 268/1427 |
Originally posted by Rom ManicOriginally posted by Skreename And they will? I rather doubt providing nuclear materials to known terrorist groups is going to help in the case to have the world let them keep their programs. |
| Sin Dogan Posts: 617/861 |
Some of you are pretty damn paranoid and don't have a logical solution to these problems. (Thayer, Rom Maniac) |
| Rom Manic Posts: 147/557 |
Originally posted by Skreename Nobody else will give it up freely. |
| Skreename Posts: 263/1427 |
There's a slight difference between what's happened so far, and an armed conflict with those two world powers. Besides... it takes two to have a war. Does Russia/China want to go to war?
Besides... typically other measures are taken before armed conflict. |
| Billiards Koopa Posts: 6/174 |
Originally posted by Skreename It's just not smart. Hm...who the fuck else is a retard? BUSH!...We're screwed. We still have TWO MORE YEARS with the bastard. The only reason he's still in offiice is...well, what retard votes for Kerry? (Note: I'm not insulting ProBush and ProKerry People, nor the rebs and demos, just Bush and Kerry) |
| Skreename Posts: 258/1427 |
It's been 60 years since a war of that magnitude. I really, REALLY doubt anyone's going to do something rash enough to provoke an outright WAR with China and Russia. It's just... not smart. |
| Wurl Posts: 772/842 |
Originally posted by Randy53215Originally posted by Wurl I have serious doubts. The U.S.'s leaders seem pretty hell bent on war with Iran. That war will likely lead to war with Russia and China. A war that large would require a draft, even though it would likely be very un-popular. |
| Skreename Posts: 247/1427 |
Originally posted by Rom Manic What's stopping them from doing that at any other nuclear power plant? Seriously... It's not like they specifically need to get nuclear waste from Iran. |
| Billiards Koopa Posts: 3/174 |
Originally posted by Cirvante< FINALLY! I was on vaca. in Las Vegas when I heard about Iran being able to enrich the atom and I'm all "Good for them." And then G.W.B. i's sayin' "NO! NOT THEM THEY CAN'T HAVE NUCLEAR POWER! NOOOO! ONLY AMERICA IS GOOD ENOUGH FOR SUCH A SOUCE OF POWER!" Geez Bush, First you tore the Iraqi gov. all to hell and pissed off the insurgents and NOW you're all worried about what Iran will be able to do in ten years. Which is, power some small city with uranium. Get our troops outta Iraq and STAY. OUT. OF. THE. FUCKING. MIDDLE. EAST! |
| Ziff Posts: 1101/1800 |
Honestly, how can you underestimate the strength of a faith that has declared religious warfare on the West, and will not stop at death to kill every last American? WTF? |
| Cirvania Posts: 59/1181 |
Originally posted by Skreename Yeah. Problem is, Iran's not too hot on letting the UN inspectors do their job... 
This is the crux of the matter. Iran says they aren't making nuclear weaponry, yet they refuse to let inspectors in their nuclear facilities and give the us (and the world) some fucking peace of mind. |
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