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11-02-05 12:59 PM
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Acmlm's Board - I2 Archive - General Chat - New Orleans: Meet Katrina | |
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beneficii

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Posted on 08-28-05 11:34 AM Link | Quote
I'm surprised that no-one has had anything to say on Hurricane Katrina at all on this board. Right now, New Orleans is marked in the bullseye for this strong Category 4 hurricane. There is a nightmare worst-case scenario out, because of New Orleans being below sea level. If a very powerful hurricane hits New Orleans head-on or just to the west, the city could be turned into a poisonous lake, with dangerous creatures stuck floating in the water (such as fire ants that clump into balls in-water unclumping onto and stinging anything they touch--including humans) and poison being present because it would leak from the factories, cars, etc. in the city.

Here is the National Hurricane Service page on Hurricane Katrina:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/060711.shtml?5day

With 90 degree SST's and precious little shear ahead of it, Katrina could be a monstrous Category 5 when it makes landfall.

It's sustained winds right now at 145 mph (about 232 kph).


(edited by beneficii on 08-28-05 02:35 AM)
(edited by beneficii on 08-28-05 02:35 AM)
(edited by beneficii on 08-28-05 02:40 AM)
Snika

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Posted on 08-28-05 11:42 AM Link | Quote
Oh no! Save the Mardi Gras beads!
Stalk up on Cajun food and other sterotypes!
Evacuate to France!

Edit: I looked and saw that this thread was a serious one. I really hope that everyone is ok.


(edited by Snika on 08-28-05 02:43 AM)
beneficii

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Posted on 08-28-05 11:44 AM Link | Quote
Originally posted by Snika
Oh no! Save the Mardi Gras beads!
Stalk up on Cajun food and other sterotypes!
Evacuate to France!


The threat is real and serious:

http://americanradioworks.publicradio.org/features/wetlands/hurricane1.html

"Basically, the part of New Orleans that most Americans--most people around the world--think is New Orleans, would disappear."

Here's another article:

http://www.bestofneworleans.com/dispatch/2002-10-15/commentary.html

And another:

http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0BJK/is_15_11/ai_68642805

And from Louisiana State University:

http://hurricane.lsu.edu/_in_the_news/april21_advocate.htm


(edited by beneficii on 08-28-05 02:44 AM)
(edited by beneficii on 08-28-05 02:45 AM)
(edited by beneficii on 08-28-05 02:45 AM)
(edited by beneficii on 08-28-05 02:47 AM)
(edited by beneficii on 08-28-05 02:48 AM)
Snika

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Posted on 08-28-05 11:47 AM Link | Quote
It would just go underwater?
Would any other states be effected?
Wait... Your in Cordova though.


(edited by Snika on 08-28-05 02:49 AM)
beneficii

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Posted on 08-28-05 11:49 AM Link | Quote
Originally posted by Snika
It would just go underwater?
Would any other states be effected?


It would be underwater, yes, and no, not really, none of the other states would go underwater. Of course they'd affected by the high winds and heavy rains of the storm.
Snika

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Posted on 08-28-05 11:50 AM Link | Quote
That must suck! Isn't there anything we can do?
beneficii

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Posted on 08-28-05 11:53 AM Link | Quote
Originally posted by Snika
That must suck! Isn't there anything we can do?


Not really, except try to evacuate. We can't control the weather yet (and whether that would be desirable is another matter). Unfortunately, people have been too lax in evacuating thus far; now it's sorta too late to evacuate the whole city.

One could only hope that Katrina wobbles to the east on her way there (or somehow weaken--though except for eyewall replacement cycles, which don't last long enough and never permanently cripple the storms and actually can help to strengthen them after they're done, this doesn't seem very likely at all), because if she makes landfall east of New Orleans, the city would not be affected nearly as much by storm surge.



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eyewall_replacement_cycle


(edited by beneficii on 08-28-05 02:54 AM)
(edited by beneficii on 08-28-05 02:55 AM)
(edited by beneficii on 08-28-05 02:55 AM)
Snika

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Posted on 08-28-05 11:59 AM Link | Quote
I'll alert the president!
beneficii

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Posted on 08-28-05 12:01 PM Link | Quote
Originally posted by Snika
I'll alert the president!


Well, he's already declared a state of emergency for the state:

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/12494800.htm
Snika

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Posted on 08-28-05 12:04 PM Link | Quote
Oh, thats a good thing that the president declared a state of emergency.
It cracks me up that he was vacationing when he got the memo.
beneficii

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Posted on 08-28-05 12:06 PM Link | Quote
Originally posted by Snika
Oh, thats a good thing that the president declared a state of emergency.
It cracks me up that he was vacationing when he got the memo.


Well, I'm just not sure what the difference would be if he declared it now or declared after the storm hit, except to prepeare the rescuers.

Some estimates of the death toll I've seen run into the thousands....


(edited by beneficii on 08-28-05 03:06 AM)
Snika

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Posted on 08-28-05 12:09 PM Link | Quote
Well, if I lived in New Orleans, I'd try my best to get the hell out of there.
I bet you that airports and highways are backed up though from evacuators.
Danielle

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Posted on 08-28-05 12:56 PM Link | Quote
Dear lord back and forth pointless posting.

Anyway, yeah that looks.. like a bad situation for New Orleans. I can't imagine it "sinking" but who knows, I'm no expert with hurricanes.
Bella

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Posted on 08-28-05 01:07 PM Link | Quote
New Orleans sinking? doesn't seem very likely

I didn't even know there was a hurricane heading there until this morning since I haven't really checked the news when I log on.
beneficii

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Posted on 08-28-05 01:25 PM Link | Quote
Originally posted by Bella
New Orleans sinking? doesn't seem very likely

I didn't even know there was a hurricane heading there until this morning since I haven't really checked the news when I log on.


It is quite unbelievable, isn't it? Nevertheless, there is scientific justification for it being likely. First, the swamps that normally would protect New Orleans from storm surges are being largely cleared away, making New Orleans more vulnerable. New Orleans is below sea level surrounded by three bodies of water: Lake Pontchartrain, the Mississippi River, and the Gulf of Mexico. Now, from what I understand, there are concerete walls place on these bodies of water to protect them from overflowing. Nevertheless, a poweful hurricane could put this arrangement under stress; if it hits New Orleans head-on or just to the west, then the onshore winds could cause storm surges of greater than 10 feet to spill over those walls. The strong winds could also cause damage to the walls allowing water to come pouring out undaunted and into the city. Heavy rains (and Katrina is moving somewhat slowly) could also cause the water to overflow. New Orleans could end up being underneath more than 20 feet of water, which I would define as being sunk. Please read the articles I posted for a better description of the possible situation.

Of course, there are factors the scientists may be missing, and hopefully Katrina veers to the east where there wouldn't be onshore winds but offshore ones (reducing the storm surges to virtually 0). I personally hope that either or both of these factors are true, because that would save thousands of lives.

EDIT: Here's an article on storm surge:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storm_surge

EDIT 2: Here's a link to a map describing what could happen in New Orleans:

http://www5.wright-weather.com/bb/attachment.php?s=&postid=452136

Since it's a big picture, I linked to it instead of displaying it here.


(edited by beneficii on 08-28-05 04:30 AM)
(edited by beneficii on 08-28-05 04:33 AM)
(edited by beneficii on 08-28-05 04:44 AM)
(edited by beneficii on 08-28-05 05:08 AM)
Ran-chan

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Posted on 08-28-05 05:07 PM Link | Quote
Oops...I guess. It really doesn´t sound good. I hope it returns to the open sea before it hits land.

Sinking? No, we don´t need another Atlantis.

Good luck, I guess.
beneficii

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Posted on 08-28-05 07:57 PM Link | Quote
Maximum sustained winds with Hurricane Katrina are now 175 mph (about 280 km/h)! I think only Camille (1969) was ever stronger than this in the Atlantic. This thing is essentially a big F3 tornado!

000
WTNT32 KNHC 281443
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA...EVEN
STRONGER...HEADED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM
WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM DESTIN FLORIDA
EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...AND FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 88.1 WEST OR ABOUT 225 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...AND A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 175 MPH...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES.

THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY MEASURED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 907 MB...26.78 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 28 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA ACROSS THE GULF
COAST AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING THIS EVENING OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA...AND
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...26.0 N... 88.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...
175 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 907 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM
CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$


(edited by beneficii on 08-28-05 10:58 AM)
Ran-chan

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Posted on 08-28-05 08:02 PM Link | Quote
One hell of a hurricane.

I know that people will get hurt and I hope that doesn´t includes members of this board.
Zweih

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Posted on 08-28-05 09:11 PM Link | Quote
Woah. This thing is immensly strong. I suspect more the roofs ripped off in this hurricane. A giant F3 tornado seems pretty acurate at this point. I hope the people of New Orleans make it out in time.
Danielle

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Posted on 08-28-05 09:41 PM Link | Quote
I have heard that even with dozens of feet of water flooding the city, there's no reason they shouldn't be able to pump it out as soon as the hurricane is out of there. So while it may be underwater for a good amount of time, it should by no means be as permanent as saying "New Orleans would disappear."
However, the dangers previously listed with having a city flooded like a lake are very realistic... just hope for the best.
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